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Friday, June 09, 2006

Do We Have a Winner?

I guess it is all had been arranged. We just have to -helplessly- wait and see what is going to happen.

But let us go over the possible options of change:

1- Gamal Mubarak: He is the candidate number one, he does have better chances of being the president than others, but if he was so sure, he would not have tried to make deals with Moslem brotherhood, besides, his last visit to the US might be a sign of desperateness. On the other hand, he has many control buttons under his fingers, inlcuding the National Democratic Party, Political powerful figures "Zakareia Azmy, Ahmed Fathy Sorour", The republican Guard "Al Haras Al Gomhuri", and the businessmen who are a substantial power.

2-Omar Sulayman: I believe he is the most powerful man in Egypt now, well connected and more importantly he has all the information and knows about all the deals and he is the only one who is capable of planning a plot that will get him in Power . But on the other hand, his loyalty to Mubarak Family is strong, and his US ties are un-certain.

3-Moslem Brotherhood or Mahdy 3akef: On the surface, it appears that the US is against MB, but there are chances that the US would let an Islamic Radicalist rule if she thinks that they would serve her interests better, if the US thinks that MB would help in deepening the East/West conflict and further emphasize the fact the Sunni's are bold uncivilized group of people and Hamas had been an example. One more thing, the current president might end up refusing to turn the power to any other moderate power or to the Army which would leave MB as the strongest alternative.

4-Ahmed Nazif: The Canadian trained , liberal , technocrat anti-MB. I think if he has the ambition, he can easily make a deal with the US and be the president and kick everybody else.

5-Minister of Defense "Hussein Tantawy": In the situations of uncertainty, and where is a conflict related to power, the Army holds itself as an alternative all the time, however Hussien Tantawy is such a follower that I doubt his ability to take such a move. But, history taught us not to trust anybody , and the sheep might be the wolf in a second.

6-Minister of Interior Affairs "Habib Al-Adly": He certainly has some keys to power, and the experience of Zein Ben Aly in Tunisia is a good example of that. But, the Army would not let him do it easily and his popularity among citizens is in its lower level.

7-Ayman Nour: I personally think that his chances are nil. Nelson Mandella will not happen again in Egypt. But, he remains a player who has good relations with the US and fair popularity , but I do not see the mechanisms that will lift him to the chair.

8-Un-identified Army Figure: The army is definitely full of powerful and ambitious staff, but who will step up for this ? How is willing to risk it ? And will be he a patriotic or Just another toy in the hands of the US ?

9-Un-identified civilian political figure or a businessman: I think this is the least possibility but not impossible. I believe that if it would to happen , it would not be immediately.

A surprise move from any of the current figures "Zakareia Azmy, Fathy Sorour, Safwat Al Shareif..etc....." is unlikely cause they themselves would not allow one of them to be the president but not the others, they know all the black files about each others and would not let go.

S0, all the options are obviously not related by any means to what the poeple want, I am not sure even if the poeple know what they want.

How poor are we!!!


Zeinobia said...

ok this list needs to be refined again I am sorry
we will omit Habib El-Adly , no interior minister in Egypt was /is a candidate for presidency , never ever ,Abu Sherif is out of the game. Ali Zen El-Abdeen was the head of intelligence yet it is correct he is more similar to El-Adly more than Soliman .
Mahdy Akaf , the man is so old , and I guess not many will welcome him in the chair after saying "Toz fi Masr "
The minister of Defense , well he is not the most powerful Defense minister , you should have put "Abu Gazla" until now this man got popularity
Ahmed Nazif well the he is too tall ,plus got another passport ,plus he will turn Egypt in to big call center for microsoft

The main players are G.M , Ayman Nour , and the tall silent dark man Soliman but the later as you said doesn't need to be the president ,he is helding a much more powerful position and among the three in my choice I will choose him already he seems to be better that G.M and Nour , my only objection on Nour is his wife , I can't imagine the first lady of Egypt was the presenter of "Amani Wa Aghany"!!!
man we are so poor as you said

El3en Elsehrya said...

First of all, the main reason of creating the list of those 9 people is uncertainty about the future of Egypt.
From that prespective, the list had to be thourough and to expect the un-expected, I had to put all possible figures , or in other word all those who might have the ambition or some tools to reach the power.
Who will eventually win this struggle is not known for sure, but right now in Egypt all options are open and if you look back in the hitory of our 2 last presidents , they were both outside the calculations of power when something suddenly happened and pushed them to power.
Concerning some specific points that you raised:
1-I did not mean Mahdy 3akef personally, i used his picture to symblise MB, i thought I was clear on this point.
2-The mis-conception that if you have another passport then you can not be the president, first of all, most of the people in the list including Gamal Mubarak hold another passport, second, when it comes to position of presidency, they can easily turn the other nationality down, I do not think that our constitution specifically prohibits the candidacy to presidency if you had hold another nationality in the past.
3-I personally think that Ayman Nour chances are nil, and you know why ? because if a situation is created where he is in a fair election, MB will not give him their votes as what happened in the last election. I think Ayman Nour popularity is factitious and created by the relative emptiness of the political field.

Finally, this list is my personal view to the matter, I can not claim it to be true or predictive or even complete, it is just my own personal view which is obviously liable to all flaws.